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The Future of Energy Policy by Timothy E. Wirth, C. Boyden Gray, and John D. Podesta

"Timothy E. Wirth is President of the United Nations Foundation and a former U.S. Senator from Colorado. C. Boyden Gray is a partner at Wilmer, Cutler & Pickering and served as Counsel to former President George H.W. Bush. John D. Podesta is Visiting Professor of Law at Georgetown University Law Center and served as Chief of Staff to former President Bill Clinton. The views expressed here are the authors' alone."#

The Debate "over energy policy in the United States has consistently failed to grapple with the large issues at stake. It is time for an ambitious new approach to U.S. strategic energy policy, one that deals with the problems of oil dependence, climate change, and the developing world's lack of access to energy."#

The authors stress the importance of decisions these days with a historical note,#

``A century ago, Lord Selborne, the first lord of the Admiralty, dismissed the idea of fueling the British navy with something other than coal, which the island nation had in great abundance. "The substitution of oil for coal is impossible," he pronounced, "because oil does not exist in this world in sufficient quantities." Seven years later, the young Winston Churchill was appointed first lord and charged with winning the escalating Anglo-German race for naval superiority. As Daniel Yergin chronicled in The Prize, Churchill saw that oil would increase ship speed and reduce refueling time -- key strategic advantages -- and ordered oil-burning battleships to be built, committing the navy to this new fuel. Churchill's was a strategic choice, bold, creative, and farsighted. *The energy choices the world faces today are no less consequential, and America's response must be as insightful.*''

And then introduce was it wrong with the current level of discussion and decision...#

``The profound changes of recent decades and the pressing challenges of the twenty-first century warrant recognizing energy's central role in America's future and the need for much more ambitious and creative approaches. Yet the current debate about U.S. energy policy is mainly about tax breaks for expanded production, access to public lands, and nuances of electricity regulation -- difficult issues all, but inadequate for the larger challenges the United States faces. The staleness of the policy dialogue reflects a failure to recognize the importance of energy to the issues it affects: defense and homeland security, the economy, and the environment. What is needed is a purposeful, strategic energy policy, not a grab bag drawn from interest-group wish lists.''

The authors like to stress that problems associated with the increased and continued reliance upon oil...#

``The flow of funds to certain oil-producing states has financed widespread corruption, perpetuated repressive regimes, funded radical anti-American fundamentalism, and fed hatreds that derive from rigid rule and stark contrasts between rich and poor. Terrorism and aggression are byproducts of these realities. Iraq tried to use its oil wealth to buy the ingredients for weapons of mass destruction. In the future, some oil-producing states may seek to swap assured access to oil for the weapons themselves. It is also increasingly clear that the riches from oil trickle down to those who would do harm to America and its friends. If this situation remains unchanged, the United States will find itself sending soldiers into battle again and again, adding the lives of American men and women in uniform to the already high cost of oil''

Imagine commercial on TV about how "Oil Supports Terrorism".

The issue of bringing energy to the poor of the world is addressed with stark description of the current state of affairs for non-Americans...#

``Of the world's six billion people, one-third enjoy the kind of energy on demand that Americans take for granted (electricity at the flick of a switch), and another third have such energy services intermittently. The final third-two billion people-simply lack access to modern energy services. Not coincidentally, the energy-deprived are the world's most impoverished, living on less than $2 per day. And their ranks will grow: according to UN estimates, the total population of the 50 poorest nations will triple in size over the next 50 years.''

Compare the state of the world's poorest people to the bills that cows rake in from government subsidies...#

``The World Bank estimates that the $300 billion worth of annual agricultural subsidies in industrialized countries suppresses world prices and undermines developing-country exports. In total, these subsidies are about six times higher than current development-assistance levels. The average European cow receives $2.50 per day in government subsidies, the average Japanese cow $7.50, yet 75 percent of people in Africa live on less than $2 per day.''

This essay contains an interesting warning about the current state of the United States' energy distribution system that was sorely needed after the recent blackout (that happened after this was published.)#

``The electricity distribution system in the United States is perhaps the most underappreciated and vulnerable part of the country's national infrastructure. [...] the nation's electric power system is antiquated, fragile, and inefficient, operating for the most part of 50-year-old technology. Running today's digital society through yesterday's grid is like running the Internet through a telephone switchboard. [...] A serious accident or an act of sabotage could cripple major regions for days or weeks and do enormous damage to the economy, much like a disruption in oil supply.''

And finally here is something it has to say about climate changing effects of the current energy policy,#

``The problem of global oil dependence has long been apparent, whereas concern about climate change is comparatively new. Both issues suffer from their sheer size and scope: many people simply believe that the problems are intractable and that practical solutions are beyond our reach and imagination.''

Adjusting to the New Asia by Morton Abramowitz and Stephen Bosworth

"Morton Abramowitz is Senior Fellow at the Century Foundation and a former U.S. Ambassador to Thailand. Stephen Bosworth is Dean of the Fletcher School at Tufts University and a former U.S. Ambassador to South Korea." And in this essay they write about the way the United States role has changed, and must changed further, in Asia.#

They open strong with some pointing out that Asia is also being affected by the "war on terror" and that it is not generally acknowledge by the public.#

``More specifically, the war on terror has led to a new American focus on the growth of Islamic extremism among Muslim populations of Southeast Asia. Suddenly, that area is experiencing significant American involvement - including the United States' largely unexamined participation in a small war in the Philippines.''

There is also talk of how the people of South Korea react to the United States' policy towards North Korea with regards to the "secret nuclear weapons program"...#

``South Koreans still worry that what the United States really aims for in the North is regime change, not a negotiated dismantling of the North's nuclear program. Southerners feel the American approach could well lead to war or the collapse of North Korea, either of which, they believe, would decimate everything South Korea has built in recent years/''

Continuing on this theme is the worrisome attitude of Japan towards the less desirable, yet realistic, outcomes of the same United States' policy.#

``North Korea remains Japan's most immediate concern. Pyongyang shocked Tokyo in 1998 when it test-fired a long-range missile over Japan, and North Korea has since deployed some 100 missiles capable of reaching Japan. In response Japanese officials have recently spoken publicly of "preempting" North Korean threats. [...] Despite the tough talk, however, Japan fears that any U.S. effort to destroy North Korea's nuclear facilities will result in retaliatory attacks on Japan.''

Finally there is some thought about what North Korea could be thinking...#

``For the time being, the most pressing question-and the source of greatest uncertainty-remains North Korea and its nuclear weapons program. At bottom, the issue is an existential one for North Korea: Pyongyang appears to realize it must change if it is to survive, but it fears that change will imperil its very survival. North Korea's strategy thus remains unclear. In the aftermath of the second Gulf War, Pyongyang may well have concluded that it cannot do without nuclear weapons.''

A High-Risk Trade Policy by Bernard K. Gordon

"Bernard K. Gordon is Professor of Political Science Emeritus at the University of New Hampshire and the author, most recently, of America's Trade Follies: Turning Economic Leadership Into Strategic Weakness. An earlier version of this essay was presented to the Cordell Hull Institute in Washington, D.C.", he writes this essay about the risky business of protectionism and not supporting the WTO fully.#

He quotes some interesting statistics about the level of export to various world regions to show how there is no part of the world that is more important than any other to the United States, and how the United States stands alone as a global exporter.#

``The reality these illustrations point to is the global distribution of U.S. exports. [...] half of American exports are divided almost equally between Europ and Asia, and more than a third go to immediate neighbors, Canada and Mexico. Putting this another way, almost 90 percent of U.S. exports are directed, in roughly equal proportions, to the globe's three main economic regions: North America, East Asia, and the EU. None of the world's other major economic players, whose exports go mainly to nearby markets, has a distribution even approaching this U.S. record. The EU export pattern is the least diversified, with two-thirds of the exports staying within the EU, and Japan's exports are almost as concentrated.''

Bernard uses the above as a indication the U.S. is indeed an important leader with a vested interest in an organization like the WTO.#

``These constrasts are a reminder of the enormity of the United States' stake in all of the world's regions, and of the corollary U.S. need to strengthen and maintain its commitment to the global trade system symbolized by the WTO.''

He continues to show that the U.S. is in good standing as a trade entity and has an interesting tidbit of knowledge here:#

``Much of the current trade dilemma and its U.S. foreign policy consequences stem from a widespread American belief that the United States has not been a successful player in world trade. [...] Nothing could be further from the truth. A long look back at the record of the last 100 years, [...], shows that the United States has largely held a steady 12-13 percent share of world exports. [...] Only in the periods that followed the two world wars did America's exports account for more than their rock-steady 12-13 percent. In those years, as a result of wartime devastation, few other nations were left on the trade scene, and American suppliers briefly and very temporarily had the export field to themselves.''

He points out that in 1913 and 1998, "the U.S. share of world exports was the same: 12.6 percent."#

Gonna Start A War

Philip Greenspun writes about an engineer's solution to Iraq.#

``Karl Taylor Compton, one-time president of MIT, was a believer in technology. Here are his words from 1938: "In recent times, modern science has developed to give mankind, for the first time, in the history of the human race, a way of securing a more abundant life which does not simply consist in taking away from someone else."

The Arab world does not share this perspective. In a region where illiteracy is common and people lack the ability to manufacture the most simple items the best way to get richer is in fact to steal from neighbors (viz. Iraq's takeover of Kuwait in 1990).

George W. Bush has some things in common with Arab rulers. For example, he is uninterested in technology and owes his wealth to family connections and special deals. For this kind of person it makes perfect sense to invade an oil-rich country and pump out the underground wealth.''

John Gruber aggregates why projects like OpenOffice are not useful...#

``Chris Nandor (who contributes prodigiously to Perl, especially Mac-related Perl projects) saved me the effort:

A lot of people put a lot of free time into open source software (including me :-). But the problem is that people do NOT normally put a lot of free time into anything that does not give them direct benefit.

In other words, developers tend to volunteer to write developer software, which is a very different genus than software for normal people. ''

Just a Gwai Lo comments on the "so-called Real Map" -#

``Let's get one thing straight: it's no more "real" or "accurate" than any map you'd see in an atlas. It just shows what the natives call their own country. We call it something different, yes, to distinguish "us" from "them", but also because the way we say it is just plain easier for us (easier on our ears, easier on our tongues, easier to write, etc.). Just as we call their country something other than what they call it, they call our country something other than what we call it, so their maps are no more accurate or innacurate than ours.''

Via Glenn Reynolds is Alan's quoting of a sad story.#

On ll1-discuss there is an interesting thread about iteration and how it relates to data structures of a program.#

One great post comes from Shriram Krishnamurthi who writes, in response to the question of whether there should be syntax to cover all cases of data structures and iteration, this...

``Because programming language designers should not think they are a whole lot smarter than the programmers who will use their language.
(Note: This wording even accommodates the design of Arc.)

Because many programmers are smart and creative, and such people do
unexpected things, the language designer cannot possibly anticipate
all the structures of data the programmer might create. In turn,
then, they cannot anticipate the iteration schemas that would be
appropriate for those data structures. And as a matter of sociology,
it is precisely these smart and creative programmers that a language
should try to attract, engage and keep, because they will push it
hardest and farthest.

I doubt you would want to use a programming language that *forbade*
the development of any data structure other than a list. This does
not prevent a language from *providing* the list as a useful
abstraction. But such a language should also provide a general means
of creating structured data, "to cover all cases".''

And another post from Michael Sperber that talks about how the two are related,#

``The real issue with LOOP and most other looping constructs is (as
Matthias pointed out), that "looping" almost always is about the
structure of the data, namely about the structure of self-referential
data. Recursive programs simply reflect that fact by having a
recursive call on the self-reference---it's a clear and
straightforward way of writing such programs. "Loop constructs"
generally obscure that issue.

This is why Scheme has largely eschewed looping constructs---hardly
anyone ever uses DO. The abstractions for doing the things you
mentioned are data-centric---things like MAP and FOLD.

Sure, people raised on loops have trouble "getting it," mostly because
of the method and the examples by which they were taught. Taught
properly, 5th-graders can get recursion, with less effort than it
would take to teach them about looping constructs.''

We Are In Love, Haven't You Heard?

New York Times article, "France and Germany Oppose U.S. Plan for U.N. Role in Iraq",#

`` "Everybody wants the U.S. to succeed in Iraq," said Christoph Bertram, director of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. "There is no question about that. But there is also a deep conviction in France and Germany and capitals all over the E.U. that the U.S. government will not succeed in rebuilding Iraq without a much stronger involvement of the United Nations."

"I think Schröder's and Chirac's rejection of the U.S. draft for a new United Nations resolution on Iraq is very clear and not surprising at all," Mr. Bertram said. "They expect the U.S. to end the occupation in Iraq and to transfer the political responsibility to the U.N. and an Iraqi government as soon as possible." ''

There's an article at Kuro5hin about the Christian "end times", it's interesting even if you don't believe it. -#

``According to the prophet Daniel (whom Jesus refers to in the Olivet Discourse), there will be a seven year period at the end of the world in which the anti-christ (literally, one against Christ) rises to power and tries one more time to deceive as many people as possible before the end.

During this final seven year period many things will happen according to prophecy: two witnesses will show up preaching the Word (eventually killed then raised to heaven), the anti-christ will show up with false signs and wonders, the seals will be broken and many billions of people will perish on earth. ''

On VentureBlog is news about TicketMaster auctioning off tickets...#

``According to an article in the New York Times this past weekend, later this year Ticketmaster will begin auctioning off the best available seats for concerts that it is ticketing. According to John Pleasants, Ticketmaster's president and CEO, the fact that there is a thriving secondary ticket market suggests that concert tickets are unpriced today. Rather than put those additional dollars in the pockets of ticket brokers, Ticketmaster contends that those dollars should go to the promoters, venues and musicians themselves. Thus, Ticketmaster is going to offer its clients the ability to auction off tickets to their events. Pleasants calls primary market ticket auctioning the first step in "a new age of the ticket."

[...]

Ticketmaster's new pricing scheme ignores one important factor -- to my mind, rock concerts are as much about marketing as sales. Bands tour to promote themselves and promote record sales. While bands can certainly make a pretty penny touring, traditionally tickets have been priced so that they are accessible to their entire fan base, not just the richest groupies. Moreover, the poor fan with lots of time on her hand was supposed to have as good a shot at getting the best seats as was the rich guy with a big checkbook. I suspect that a band's loyal fans will not take kindly to rich folk buying up the front rows and leaving them to fight for the back of the house. ''

Michael Watkins writes about a discussion group he recently ran. He focuses on one question...#

``One of the questions I asked was "Is the US military personnel system melting down?" By which I meant, are we at risk of losing our most precious military resource, our highly trained and committed people. A deep collective sigh issued forth from the group, after which a senior US General said "yes."

This question goes to the core of the risks we face in Iraq, beyond the obvious ones of having soldiers killed.

Our military is a "coalition of willing." A lot of capability resides in National Guard and Reserve units. Many of these folks, who signed up for "a weekend a month," now find themselves on long-term overseas assignments. This comes on top of the stresses already imposed on the military by the operations in the Balkans and Afghanistan. ''

Via Bill Maher is funny comments from Johnny Depp...#

``"My daughter is four, my boy is one. I'd like them to see America as a toy, a broken toy. Investigate it a little, check it out, get this feeling and then get out," said the star of the off-beat films "Edward Scissorhands" and "Dead Man."

Depp slammed George W. Bush's administration for its criticism of French opposition to the U.S.-led war in Iraq.

"I was ecstatic they re-named 'French Fries' as 'Freedom Fries'. Grown men and women in positions of power in the U.S. government showing themselves as idiots," he told Stern.''

Lance Arthur writes about messages in cement, one that said "Tippy LOVES Bill"#

``I imagine Tippy and Bill (because I want to imagine them both chancing upon the square of soft cement together, hand-in-hand, licking ice cream cones, Tippy is wearing Keds and Capri pants, Bill in threadbare jeans he actuall wore in rather than bought from Diesel pre-worn-in, a pair of Chuck Taylors and a white T-shirt from JC Penney with a hole under one arm, assuming Tippy is a person and not a cat—which would be even more cute, of course. The cat chancing upon the new sidewalk tile in the dead of night, because for some reason they could only replace the sidewalk in the dead of night, and the cat, out for a stroll, carves the message in the concrete with her claw, spending the next six hours licking the indelible love out of her paw) pausing there at the fresh cement, both of them then silently smiling and looking at each other before dropping to their knees to inscribe their love in stick letters for everyone to see.

Tippy and Bill are in love still, in my imaginary world. A love that lasts as long as the words in the concrete, and longer even than that, gouged into time and space and as strong as their embraces. In my imaginary world, these are the things that describe and define the way things are, not the observable, but the recorded. Things that are written down in concrete.''

Charles Miller writes about the legality of reverse engineering,#

``Novels are, mostly, copyright material. Every author, however, has in his time read an enormous number of books, and incorporated their "source code" into his body of knowledge. When that author comes to write another book, he can't help but use the things he's learned about the craft of book-writing from reading the copyrighted works of others.

Does that mean any author must keep careful track of everyone he's read so that he can apportion royalties? Of course not. So long as he's not lifting the words directly from another book, we recognise that it's neither theft, nor un-ethical. Even "homage" is acceptable. My domain pastiche.org, is named after the technique of creating art deliberately in the style of another artist, one of the common techniques of post-modernist era.''

I love Tony Pierce advice...#

``i have more than a few tips for the college kids and i'd say on the top of the list is to do like what kristin did, and not be afraid to break up with boyfriends/girlfriends when youre in college. im not saying dont try to work things out, definately do that, but if you really arent into it anymore breaking up is the best thing you can do for yourself and your sweetie - especially when youre surrounded for the last time in your life by people your age doing almost exactly what youre doing.

college should be a place where dating and meeting people is at its easiest, which isnt to say that it will be easy, but it only gets harder once you leave the friendly confines of your campus.

with that said, if youre a guy, ask out every girl you get a crush on. your odds of them saying yes are far greater than when youre 26 and serving them mudslides at the TGIF. and trust me, thanks to our president, most of you are going to take that college degree and still end up working at the damn TGIF, so take that betty to the movies and if she says no, ask her roommate.

as for you, ladies, say yes in college. you have the rest of your lives to play hard-to-get. games are for game nights when youre sitting around your condo with the rest of your single girlfriends smoking american spirits, drinking white wine and realizing youre creeping closer to 30 and you've never been with a hundred-year-old. believe it when you hear that college is the best time of your life.''

Kristin has a really creepy story on her blog...#

``in anatomy, the monday/wednesday/friday classes share their cadavers with the tuesday/thursday classes. the body that my friend meredith had worked on the first day of class had been replaced with another when she came to her second class on wednesday. apparently, a boy in the group who was supposed to work on that same body in the tuesday/thursday class was actually the cadaver's GRANDSON. i kid you not. fortunately, someone figured that out before the boy saw his grandfather all sliced open.''

Obviously Carly has a great blog. I like it how so much is related to cute movies. This is also funny:#

``I got a parking ticket today. The first blemish on my Permanent Record ever. It's only five bucks, though, so I can't really complain. Especially since it would've cost me more than that to park there all day. Stupid metered parking, I hate you.''

Some laws, obviously, are very dum. D U M.

Carly writes about soccer. Does she play or just watch? I like to watch soccer. Only I call it Football, because I'm pompous.